In a week teeming with significant events, the Bitcoin and crypto cryptocurrency sector braces itself for potential market shifts. From legal proceedings to macroeconomic data releases, the coming days promise a medley of determinants that could substantially impact Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
1. Bitcoin Spot ETF Approval? SEC’s Grayscale Appeal Deadline Looms (Friday)
On August 29, 2023, the DC Circuit Court of Appeals unanimously ruled in favor of Grayscale regarding its proposal to convert the Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into the first exchange-traded Bitcoin fund. The court deemed the SEC’s denial as “arbitrary and capricious” due to inconsistency with futures-based BTC products.
Friday, October 13, is the SEC’s last day to appeal this decision. And not appealing could hint at the SEC approving multiple Bitcoin spot ETF applications soon.
CNBC reported positive sentiments, with Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan anticipating a spot bitcoin ETF within the year and VanEck CEO Jan van Eck projecting a spot product in early 2024.
Hougan stated: “I expect we’ll see a spot bitcoin ETF this calendar year.” VanEck CEO Jan van Eck predicted: “It looks like early in 2024 we will probably see a spot product.”
Notably, the SEC has shown a promising sign, a departure from its historical stance on spot ETF approvals. Eric Balchunas, a leading ETF analyst at Bloomberg, highlighted this change in a recent tweet.
Yes, while the SEC delayed spot bitcoin filings last week, they also sent the issuers comments to address their S-1 filings (related to plumbing, legal). This is a break from the typical pattern of delay, delay, radio silence then denial. A welcome sign IMO although the timeline is unclear.
2. Binance Vs. SEC Clash Continues (Thursday)
The standoff between Binance.US and the SEC took an interesting turn in mid-September when Federal Magistrate Judge Zia Faruqui rejected the SEC’s bid to inspect Binance.US’s tech systems, stating the request was overly invasive. The SEC accuses both Binance platforms of operating without proper licenses, allegedly earning a staggering $11.6 billion from U.S. customers since July 2017.
With the SEC’s previous attempt to expedite discovery stymied by Binance.US’s alleged non-cooperation, October 12 (Thursday) sees the next crucial hearing in this legal battle.
3. US CPI Data Release (Thursday)
Market watchers await September’s CPI report with bated breath, given the present uncertainty around the economy’s direction. Last month’s figures indicated a 3.7% y/y inflation rate. Although September’s numbers are anticipated to reflect a mild 0.3% m/m inflation, the annual figure could inch up to 3.8%.
However, core CPI — which omits volatile food and energy prices — could offer more clarity. With a 12-month downward trend, the number is projected to drop to 4.1% y/y this September, potentially reinforcing the notion of waning inflation.
4. FOMC Minutes To Shed Light On Monetary Policy? (Wednesday)
The release of September’s FOMC minutes (2:00 pm ET) is eagerly awaited for insights on the Fed’s stance concerning soft-landing scenarios and monetary policy. As Bitcoin and the wider crypto markets anticipate possible moves, recent upticks in yields have garnered the attention of several Fed officials.
Last week’s 16-year peak of a 4.88% 10-year yield has had strong significant ramifications on the US dollar. Should the minutes reveal heightened inflation concerns over economic slowdown fears, yields could soar even further. Thus, the macro headwinds for Bitcoin and crypto could intensify. The Fed officials’ perspective on the situation will be interesting for traders.
5. More Macro Data
Another standout data point will be September’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) Inflation, set to be unveiled on Wednesday. Back in August, the PPI inflation rate surprised many when it outpaced forecasts to reach 1.6% year-on-year (YoY). The coming month’s figures, according to analysts’ projections, are also expected to clock in at 1.6% YoY. When observing the data on a month-on-month (MoM) basis, September’s forecast stands at a rise of +0.3%, contrasting with the previous figure of +0.7%.
In tandem with the PPI data, Thursday will see the release of the OPEC monthly report. Following the Hamas attack on Israel, the oil price jumped to $89 a barrel. As such, the oil price could be one of the big spoilers for falling inflation.
Also on Thursday, the US jobless claims data will be made public. Moreover, there will be twelve events featuring speakers from the Federal Reserve. Given the heightened focus on inflation and monetary policy, remarks from Fed officials will be closely scrutinized for insights and indications about the future direction of economic policy.
This convergence of major events makes it an undeniably pivotal week for Bitcoin, the wider crypto market, and the traditional financial world. All eyes are on the aforementioned developments to decipher their potential ripple effects across markets.
At press time, BTC traded at $27,790.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com